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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (11.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Stevenage |
| 34.89% ( | 28.62% ( | 36.49% |
| Both teams to score 45.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.49% ( | 60.51% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.37% ( | 80.62% ( |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.26% | 32.73% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.71% ( | 69.29% ( |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.3% ( | 31.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.89% ( | 68.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Stevenage |
| 1-0 @ 11.58% 2-1 @ 7.43% 2-0 @ 6.47% 3-1 @ 2.77% 3-0 @ 2.41% 3-2 @ 1.59% Other @ 2.63% Total : 34.88% | 1-1 @ 13.31% 0-0 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 4.27% ( Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.61% | 0-1 @ 11.92% ( 1-2 @ 7.65% 0-2 @ 6.85% 1-3 @ 2.93% 0-3 @ 2.62% ( 2-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.88% Total : 36.49% |