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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (11.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Stevenage |
34.89% ( 0) | 28.62% ( -0) | 36.49% |
Both teams to score 45.95% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.49% ( -0) | 60.51% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.37% ( -0) | 80.62% ( 0) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.26% | 32.73% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.71% ( -0) | 69.29% ( 0) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.3% ( -0) | 31.69% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.89% ( -0) | 68.11% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Stevenage |
1-0 @ 11.58% 2-1 @ 7.43% 2-0 @ 6.47% 3-1 @ 2.77% 3-0 @ 2.41% 3-2 @ 1.59% Other @ 2.63% Total : 34.88% | 1-1 @ 13.31% 0-0 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0) Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.61% | 0-1 @ 11.92% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.65% 0-2 @ 6.85% 1-3 @ 2.93% 0-3 @ 2.62% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.88% Total : 36.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 91 | 44 | 47 | 89 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 44 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 87 | 45 | 42 | 82 |
P | Wrexham | 44 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 84 | 51 | 33 | 82 |
4 | MK Dons | 44 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 74 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 70 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 68 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 66 |
8 | Walsall | 44 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 66 | 65 | 1 | 65 |
9 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 64 |
10 | Gillingham | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 63 |
11 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 62 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 44 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 62 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 60 |
14 | Notts County | 44 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 88 | 85 | 3 | 58 |
15 | Morecambe | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 63 | 76 | -13 | 57 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 44 | 16 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 71 | -10 | 55 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 54 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 44 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 74 | 78 | -4 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 44 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 63 | 80 | -17 | 47 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 44 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 55 | 72 | -17 | 46 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 53 | 78 | -25 | 40 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 41 | 77 | -36 | 36 |
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