FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Jan 29, 2023 at 2pm UK

Bet365 Stadium

Stoke
3 - 1
Stevenage

Brown (3'), Laurent (73'), Baker (80' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-0)

Reid (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Stoke City and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Stoke 4-0 Reading
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Stevenage

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Stevenage 3-0 Leyton Orient
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Stevenage
37.8% ( -0.25)	27.05% ( 0.24)	35.16% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 50.71% (

-0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.39% (

-0.96)

54.6% (

0.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.05% (

-0.8)

75.94% (

0.8)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.01% (

-0.6)

27.99% (

0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.37% (

-0.77)

63.63% (

0.77)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.42% (

-0.46)

29.58% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.39% (

-0.57)

65.61% (

0.57)

Score Analysis

Stoke City 37.79%

Stevenage 35.15%

Draw 27.05%

Stoke City	Draw	Stevenage
1-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.92% Total : 37.79%	1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.95% Total : 27.05%	0-1 @ 10.08% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.45% Total : 35.15%