Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 25.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 1-0 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.