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League One | Gameweek 21
Dec 9, 2023 at 3pm UK
Sixfields Stadium
Fleetwood Town
Northampton
3 - 0
Fleetwood
Pinnock (27', 90'), Hoskins (31' pen.)
Bowie (49')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mayor (22')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Northampton Town and Fleetwood Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Northampton Town 2-0 Fleetwood Town

While Fleetwood have certainly shown signs of improvement on the whole under Lee Johnson, they lack confidence heading to Sixfields and may not have enough to come away with a result against Brady's side, who will be keen to return to their best after a minor setback last time out. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.

Result
Northampton TownDrawFleetwood Town
42.05% (0.238 0.24) 25.7% (-0.017999999999997 -0.02) 32.25% (-0.22 -0.22)
Both teams to score 54.41% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.42% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)49.58% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.39% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)71.6% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.58% (0.119 0.12)23.41% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.59% (0.172 0.17)57.41% (-0.172 -0.17)
Fleetwood Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.04% (-0.139 -0.14)28.96% (0.14 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.15% (-0.174 -0.17)64.85% (0.175 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Northampton Town 42.05%
    Fleetwood Town 32.25%
    Draw 25.69%
Northampton TownDrawFleetwood Town
1-0 @ 9.84% (0.032 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.86% (0.025 0.03)
2-0 @ 7.15% (0.048 0.05)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.46% (0.035 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.66% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.56% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.26% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 0.96% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 42.05%
1-1 @ 12.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.78% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 5.49% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.69%
0-1 @ 8.4% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.56% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.21% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.12% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.27% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.15% (-0.026 -0.03)
1-4 @ 0.97% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 32.25%

Head to Head
Jan 26, 2021 7.45pm
Dec 1, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Northampton
1-0
Fleetwood
Bolger (47')
Sowerby (13'), McWilliams (43'), Harriman (60'), Arnold (90+3')

Coutts (8'), Camps (34'), Whelan (66')
Mar 24, 2018 3pm
Fleetwood
2-0
Northampton
Dempsey (18'), Bolger (83')
Sowerby (70')

Luckassen (90')
Aug 12, 2017 3pm
Feb 25, 2017 3pm
Fleetwood
3-0
Northampton
Cole (42'), Grant (56'), Ball (60')
Hunter (78')

Diamond (74'), McCourt (89')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth352110458302873
2Derby CountyDerby34206859312866
3Bolton WanderersBolton33206760372366
4Barnsley33189660372363
5Peterborough UnitedPeterborough33178861412059
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd351691057441357
7Stevenage33168947341356
8Blackpool341581154401453
9Leyton Orient34149114242051
10Lincoln CityLincoln341212103732548
11Northampton TownNorthampton34146144750-348
12Bristol Rovers34137144749-246
13Wigan AthleticWigan34147134843541
14Exeter CityExeter35117172648-2240
15Wycombe WanderersWycombe33911134144-338
16Reading35119154652-638
17Cambridge UnitedCambridge33108153141-1038
18Burton Albion33108152943-1438
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury34115182646-2038
20Charlton AthleticCharlton34713144752-534
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham3296172843-1533
22Port Vale3287173252-2031
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood3469193456-2227
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle3348212757-3020

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