Mexico national football team
Friendlies 1
Sep 8, 2024 at 2am UK
Soldier Field
New Zealand national football team

Mexico
3 - 0
New Zealand

Pineda (5', 5'), Huerta (53', 53'), Romo (57', 57')
Vasquez (74'), Vasquez (74'), Chavez (77'), Chavez (77')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Smith (75'), Smith (75'), Stamenic (90'), Stamenic (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's friendly clash between Mexico and New Zealand, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America

New Zealand

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: New Zealand 0-0 Tunisia (2-4 pen.)
Tuesday, March 26 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 51.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 23.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
MexicoDrawNew Zealand
51.76% (-0.20800000000001 -0.21)25.09% (0.183 0.18)23.15% (0.031000000000002 0.03)
Both teams to score 49.63% (-0.493 -0.49)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.35% (-0.67 -0.67)52.65% (0.674 0.67)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.7% (-0.575 -0.57)74.3% (0.58 0.58)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.66% (-0.348 -0.35)20.34% (0.352 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.27% (-0.561 -0.56)52.73% (0.566 0.57)
New Zealand Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.3% (-0.343 -0.34)37.7% (0.347 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.52% (-0.337 -0.34)74.48% (0.342 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Mexico 51.75%
    New Zealand 23.15%
    Draw 25.09%
MexicoDrawNew Zealand
1-0 @ 12.21% (0.19 0.19)
2-0 @ 9.73% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.16% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.04% (-0.078 -0.08)
3-2 @ 2.46% (-0.062 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.06% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.01% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-2 @ 0.98% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 51.75%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 7.67% (0.202 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.63% (-0.065 -0.06)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 25.09%
0-1 @ 7.48% (0.129 0.13)
1-2 @ 5.81% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.028 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.89% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.5% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.19% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.63%
Total : 23.15%

How you voted: Mexico vs New Zealand

Mexico
90.5%
Draw
4.1%
New Zealand
5.4%
74
Head to Head
Jun 21, 2017 7pm
Group Stage
Mexico
2-1
New Zealand
Jimenez (54'), Peralta (72')
Reyes (95')
Wood (42')
Thomas (26'), Boxall (96')
Nov 13, 2013 7.30pm
Qualifiers
Mexico
5-1
New Zealand
Aguilar (32'), Jimenez (40'), Peralta (48', 80'), Marquez (84')
James (85')
Wood (16'), Vicelich (57'), Durante (71'), Bertos (76'), James (89')
> Match Report