Friendlies 1

Sep 8, 2024 at 2am UK

Soldier Field

Mexico
3 - 0
New Zealand

Pineda (5', 5'), Huerta (53', 53'), Romo (57', 57')
Vasquez (74'), Vasquez (74'), Chavez (77'), Chavez (77')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Smith (75'), Smith (75'), Stamenic (90'), Stamenic (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's friendly clash between Mexico and New Zealand, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Venezuela	3	5	9
2	Ecuador	3	1	4
3	Mexico	3	0	4
4	Jamaica	3	-6	0

New Zealand

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: New Zealand 0-0 Tunisia (2-4 pen.)
Tuesday, March 26 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	5	7
2	Mexico	3	2	7
3	Russia	3	0	3
4	New Zealand	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 51.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 23.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	New Zealand
51.76% ( -0.21)	25.09% ( 0.18)	23.15% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 49.63% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.35% (

-0.67)

52.65% (

0.67)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.7% (

-0.57)

74.3% (

0.58)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.66% (

-0.35)

20.34% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.27% (

-0.56)

52.73% (

0.57)

New Zealand Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.3% (

-0.34)

37.7% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.52% (

-0.34)

74.48% (

0.34)

Score Analysis

Mexico 51.75%

New Zealand 23.15%

Draw 25.09%

Mexico	Draw	New Zealand
1-0 @ 12.21% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.64% Total : 51.75%	1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.88% Total : 25.09%	0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 1.63% Total : 23.15%