Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 46.98%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Uruguay had a probability of 26.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Uruguay win it was 0-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Uruguay
46.98% ( 0.56)	26.75% ( -0.23)	26.28% ( -0.33)

Both teams to score 47.81% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.49% (

0.63)

56.52% (

-0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.5% (

0.5)

77.51% (

-0.5)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.94% (

0.54)

24.06% (

-0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.66% (

0.77)

58.34% (

-0.76)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.95% (

0.06)

37.05% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.17% (

0.06)

73.84% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Mexico 46.97%

Uruguay 26.28%

Draw 26.75%

Mexico	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 12.69% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.53% Total : 46.97%	1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.75%	0-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.77% Total : 26.28%