Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Brazil had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Brazil win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.