Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 27, 2024 at 2am UK

Masafi Stadium

Venezuela
1 - 0
Mexico

Rondon (57' pen., 57' pen.)
Ferraresi (35'), Ferraresi (35'), Navarro (64'), Navarro (64')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gimenez (39'), Gimenez (39'), Vega (64'), Vega (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa America clash between Venezuela and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Venezuela

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Ecuador 1-2 Venezuela
Saturday, June 22 at 11pm in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Mexico

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Jamaica
Sunday, June 23 at 2am in Copa America

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Venezuela	1	1	3
2	Mexico	1	1	3
3	Ecuador	1	-1	0
4	Jamaica	1	-1	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 49.54%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 23.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.22%) and 1-2 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Venezuela win it was 1-0 (9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
Venezuela	Draw	Mexico
23.09% ( -0.09)	27.37% ( -0.01)	49.54% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 43.37% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.22% (

-0.04)

60.78% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.17% (

-0.02)

80.83% (

0.03)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.63% (

-0.1)

42.37% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.24% (

-0.09)

78.76% (

0.09)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.26% (

0.03)

24.74% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.71% (

0.04)

59.29% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Venezuela 23.09%

Mexico 49.54%

Draw 27.36%

Venezuela	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 9% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.4% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.87% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.1% Total : 23.09%	1-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.77% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.54% Total : 27.36%	0-1 @ 14.64% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 10.22% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8.78% 0-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4.09% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 49.54%