Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Ecuador
40.71% ( 0.11)	27.3% ( -0.15)	31.99% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 49.28% (

0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.89% (

0.56)

56.11% (

-0.57)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.82% (

0.45)

77.18% (

-0.46)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.93% (

0.32)

27.06% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.56% (

0.42)

62.43% (

-0.43)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.57% (

0.31)

32.43% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.05% (

0.35)

68.95% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Mexico 40.7%

Ecuador 31.99%

Draw 27.29%

Mexico	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 11.47% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.5% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.68% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.01% Total : 40.7%	1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.78% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.29%	0-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 7.27% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.67% Total : 31.99%