Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 26, 2024 at 11pm UK

Allegiant Stadium

Ecuador
3 - 1
Jamaica

Palmer (13'), Paez (45+4' pen.), Minda (90+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Antonio (54')
Lowe (39'), Hector (49'), Latibeaudiere (80'), Anderson (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa America clash between Ecuador and Jamaica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Ecuador 1-2 Venezuela
Saturday, June 22 at 11pm in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Jamaica

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Jamaica
Sunday, June 23 at 2am in Copa America

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Venezuela	1	1	3
2	Mexico	1	1	3
3	Ecuador	1	-1	0
4	Jamaica	1	-1	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Jamaica
41.34% ( 0.02)	28.73% ( 0.06)	29.92% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 44.5% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.24% (

-0.23)

61.75% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.44% (

-0.18)

81.55% (

0.17)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.58% (

-0.1)

29.41% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.59% (

-0.13)

65.4% (

0.13)

Jamaica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.04% (

-0.2)

36.95% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.26% (

-0.2)

73.74% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 41.34%

Jamaica 29.91%

Draw 28.72%

Ecuador	Draw	Jamaica
1-0 @ 13.3% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.32% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.31% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.5% Total : 41.34%	1-1 @ 13.24% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.72%	0-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 29.91%