Friendlies 1

Jun 13, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Subaru Park

Ecuador
3 - 1
Bolivia

Valencia (18', 18'), Yeboah (25', 25'), Caicedo (70' pen., 70' pen.)
Gruezo (80'), Gruezo (80'), Caicedo (86'), Caicedo (86')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Terceros (88', 88')
Fernandez (9'), Fernandez (9'), Algaranaz (31'), Algaranaz (31'), Villamil (70'), Villamil (70'), Justiniano (77'), Justiniano (77'), Ramallo (82'), Ramallo (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's friendly clash between Ecuador and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 10 at 12am in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Bolivia

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 1 at 2.30am in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 74.36%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 8.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.79%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Bolivia
74.36% ( -0.56)	17.54% ( 0.15)	8.1% ( 0.41)

Both teams to score 36.72% (

1.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.78% (

0.68)

50.22% (

-0.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.83% (

0.6)

72.17% (

-0.6)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.06% (

0.03)

11.94% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.69% (

0.08)

37.31% (

-0.07)

Bolivia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

41.7% (

1.44)

58.3% (

-1.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.24% (

0.76)

89.75% (

-0.76)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 74.34%

Bolivia 8.1%

Draw 17.54%

Ecuador	Draw	Bolivia
2-0 @ 15.71% ( -0.4) 1-0 @ 14.79% ( -0.38) 3-0 @ 11.13% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.11) 5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.61% Total : 74.34%	1-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.31% Total : 17.54%	0-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.18% Total : 8.1%