Friendlies 1

Jun 16, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field

Ecuador
2 - 1
Honduras

Sarmiento (8'), Hincapie (89')
Paez (57'), Gruezo (84')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Rochez (29' pen.)
Alvarez (62'), Enrique Martinez (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's friendly clash between Ecuador and Honduras, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Bolivia
Thursday, June 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Honduras

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Bermuda 1-6 Honduras
Monday, June 10 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Honduras
43.86% ( 0.1)	26.33% ( 0.09)	29.81% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 51.32% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.93% (

-0.45)

53.08% (

0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.34% (

-0.38)

74.66% (

0.38)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.95% (

-0.15)

24.05% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.67% (

-0.21)

58.33% (

0.21)

Honduras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.58% (

-0.37)

32.42% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.06% (

-0.42)

68.94% (

0.42)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 43.86%

Honduras 29.81%

Draw 26.32%

Ecuador	Draw	Honduras
1-0 @ 11.11% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.24% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 43.86%	1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.32%	0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.65% Total : 29.81%