Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Gradski stadion
Backa Topola1 - 3Jagiellonia
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia
Friday, February 7 at 5pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Friday, February 7 at 5pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Goals
for
for
38
We said: Backa Topola 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok
On paper, Jagiellonia have more quality, and the league phase table proved that, but there are still a few doubts given their recent fall off in form, which has seen them win just one of their last nine games. TSC suffered a chastening defeat to Jagiellonia's Polish compatriots Legia earlier in this competition, but after sneaking through in the final minutes of the league phase, they will be keen to make the most of the opportunity handed to them, and they should do enough to keep the tie alive heading into the second leg. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.93%) and 0-2 (5.42%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 2-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Backa Topola | Draw | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
34.09% ( -0.04) | 22.39% ( -0.01) | 43.51% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 67% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
