Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pogon Szczecin win with a probability of 56.86%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 21.64% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pogon Szczecin win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.49%) and 1-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 (5.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.