DFB-Pokal | Semi-Finals

May 2, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
1 - 5
RB Leipzig

Gregoritsch (75')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Olmo (13'), Henrichs (14'), Szoboszlai (37', 90+7' pen.), Nkunku (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Freiburg and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: FC Koln 0-1 Freiburg
Saturday, April 29 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

RB Leipzig

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: RB Leipzig 1-0 Hoffenheim
Saturday, April 29 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	RB Leipzig
30.01% ( 0.05)	23.68% ( 0.01)	46.3% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 60.2% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.48% (

-0)

41.51%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.09% (

-0)

63.91%

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.57% (

0.03)

26.42% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.41% (

0.04)

61.59% (

-0.04)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.82% (

-0.02)

18.17% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.84% (

-0.03)

49.16% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 30.01%

RB Leipzig 46.3%

Draw 23.68%

Freiburg	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 7.25% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.39% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 30.01%	1-1 @ 10.89% 2-2 @ 6.18% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.8% 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.68%	1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.19% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.28% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.52% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.25% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.69% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 3.63% Total : 46.3%