Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 16, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
Independiente del Valle

River Plate
6 - 2
Independiente

Driussi (8', 8'), Zarate (25' og., 25' og.), Mastantuono (45+5' pen., 45+5' pen.), Meza (51', 51'), Borja (88', 88'), Lanzini (90+4', 90+4')
FT(HT: 6-4)
Hoyos (11', 11'), Spinelli (21', 21')
Mercado (40'), Mercado (40'), Loor (86'), Loor (86')
Carabajal (45+4'), Carabajal (45+4')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between River Plate and Independiente del Valle.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: River Plate 3-0 Barracas Central
Tuesday, May 13 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Independiente del Valle

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Universitario 1-1 Independiente
Friday, May 9 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 68.7%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 12.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.18%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
River PlateDrawIndependiente del Valle
68.7% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)19.18% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)12.13% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Both teams to score 46.19% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.15% (0.025999999999996 0.03)45.85% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.83% (0.024999999999999 0.02)68.16% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.74% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)12.26% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62% (0.012 0.01)38% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Independiente del Valle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.65% (0.027000000000001 0.03)47.35% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.25% (0.016999999999999 0.02)82.75% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    River Plate 68.69%
    Independiente del Valle 12.13%
    Draw 19.18%
River PlateDrawIndependiente del Valle
2-0 @ 12.78% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 12.18% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 8.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 4.69%
4-1 @ 3.51% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 2.5% (0.0020000000000002 0)
5-0 @ 1.97% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.47% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 1.31% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 68.69%
1-1 @ 9.11%
0-0 @ 5.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.57% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 19.18%
0-1 @ 4.34% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 3.41% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 1.62% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 12.13%

Head to Head
Apr 24, 2025 1.30am
Group Stage
Independiente
2-2
River Plate
Spinelli (24', 30')
Mendez (73'), Loor (78')
Galoppo (68'), Driussi (74')
Colidio (42'), Pezzella (60'), Armani (88'), Kranevitter (90+5'), Montiel (90+1')