Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 3, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Monumental

Universitario
0 - 1
River Plate

Concha (36'), Corzo (49'), Valera (55'), Murrugarra (62'), Velez (72'), Flores (83')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Diaz (17')
Perez (23'), Castano (63'), Bustos (74'), Armani (90+5')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Universitario and River Plate.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universitario

Last Game: Universitario 0-0 Inter Miami (0-0 pen.)
Thursday, January 30 at 1am in Club Friendlies 1

River Plate

All competitions

Last Game: River Plate 2-2 Rosario
Sunday, March 30 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Universitario had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Universitario win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for River Plate in this match.

Result
Universitario	Draw	River Plate
34.67% ( -0.85)	27.03% ( 0.16)	38.3% ( 0.7)

Both teams to score 50.7% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.41% (

-0.7)

54.59% (

0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.06% (

-0.58)

75.93% (

0.58)

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.12% (

-0.88)

29.88% (

0.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.02% (

-1.07)

65.98% (

1.07)

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.3% (

0.07)

27.7% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.74% (

0.09)

63.25% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Universitario 34.67%

River Plate 38.29%

Draw 27.03%

Universitario	Draw	River Plate
1-0 @ 10% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.39% Total : 34.67%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.95% Total : 27.03%	0-1 @ 10.62% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 8.24% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 6.82% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.97% Total : 38.29%