Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Universitario had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Universitario win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for River Plate in this match.