Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 50.52%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Universitario had a probability of 23.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Universitario win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.