Copa Sudamericana | Round of 32 | 2nd Leg
Jul 25, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Alberto Jose Armando
Independiente del Valle

Boca Juniors
1 - 0
Independiente

Cavani (39', 39')
Lema (34'), Lema (34'), Advincula (90+8'), Advincula (90+8')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Schunke (58'), Schunke (58'), Hoyos (81'), Hoyos (81'), Sornoza (90+8'), Sornoza (90+8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Boca Juniors and Independiente del Valle, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Boca Juniors

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Defensa 2-2 Boca Juniors
Monday, July 22 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division

Independiente del Valle

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Independiente 0-0 Boca Juniors
Thursday, July 18 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 61.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 16.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match.

Result
Boca JuniorsDrawIndependiente del Valle
61.66% (-0.17400000000001 -0.17)22.1% (0.091000000000001 0.09)16.24% (0.084999999999997 0.08)
Both teams to score 47.61% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.35% (-0.228 -0.23)49.65% (0.22900000000001 0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.33% (-0.205 -0.21)71.67% (0.206 0.21)
Boca Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.4% (-0.13500000000001 -0.14)15.6% (0.135 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.42% (-0.252 -0.25)44.58% (0.252 0.25)
Independiente del Valle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.41% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)43.59% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.21% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)79.79% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Boca Juniors 61.65%
    Independiente del Valle 16.24%
    Draw 22.1%
Boca JuniorsDrawIndependiente del Valle
1-0 @ 12.63% (0.06 0.06)
2-0 @ 11.73%
2-1 @ 9.75% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.27% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.04% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
4-0 @ 3.38% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.8% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.51% (-0.016 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.26% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.16% (-0.013 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.04% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 61.65%
1-1 @ 10.49% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.8% (0.063 0.06)
2-2 @ 4.05% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 22.1%
0-1 @ 5.65% (0.048 0.05)
1-2 @ 4.36% (0.014 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.34% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.21% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.12% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 16.24%

How you voted: Boca Juniors vs Independiente

Boca Juniors
83.3%
Draw
5.6%
Independiente del Valle
11.1%
18
Head to Head
Jul 18, 2024 1.30am
Round of 32 1st Leg
Independiente
0-0
Boca Juniors
Ibarra (37')
Advincula (2'), Ramirez (78')
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