Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 9, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Barcelona
2 - 3
River Plate

Rivero (15', 15'), Martinez (49' og., 49' og.)
Chala (28'), Chala (28'), Trindade (73'), Trindade (73')

FT(HT: 2-4)

Driussi (7', 7'), Colidio (26', 26'), Mastantuono (48', 48')
Galoppo (82'), Galoppo (82'), Montiel (85'), Montiel (85')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Barcelona SC and River Plate.

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona SC

Last Game: Barcelona 0-1 Universitario
Wednesday, April 23 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

River Plate

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: River Plate 4-1 Velez Sarsfield
Monday, May 5 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 49.89%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Barcelona SC had a probability of 24.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.68%) and 1-2 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Barcelona SC win it was 1-0 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
Barcelona SC	Draw	River Plate
24.02% ( -0.33)	26.09% ( -0.12)	49.89% ( 0.45)

Both teams to score 47.69% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.34% (

0.17)

55.66% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.19% (

0.14)

76.81% (

-0.14)

Barcelona SC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.43% (

-0.21)

38.57% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.68% (

-0.2)

75.32% (

0.2)

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.64% (

0.27)

22.36% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.14% (

0.41)

55.86% (

-0.41)

Score Analysis

Barcelona SC 24.02%

River Plate 49.89%

Draw 26.08%

Barcelona SC	Draw	River Plate
1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.53% Total : 24.02%	1-1 @ 12.3% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.76% Total : 26.08%	0-1 @ 12.92% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 9.68% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 9.22% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.92% Total : 49.89%