Independiente del Valle
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 24, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Independiente
2 - 2
River Plate

Spinelli (24', 24', 30', 30')
Mendez (73'), Mendez (73'), Loor (78'), Loor (78')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Galoppo (68', 68'), Driussi (74', 74')
Colidio (42'), Colidio (42'), Pezzella (60'), Pezzella (60'), Armani (88'), Armani (88'), Kranevitter (90+5'), Montiel (90+1'), Kranevitter (90+5'), Montiel (90+1')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Independiente del Valle and River Plate.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

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Last Game: Independiente 1-0 Universitario
Wednesday, April 9 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
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River Plate

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Gimnasia 0-3 River Plate
Friday, April 18 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 45.4%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 27.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.85%) and 1-2 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 1-0 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.

Result
Independiente del ValleDrawRiver Plate
27.19% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)27.41% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)45.4% (0.101 0.1)
Both teams to score 46.62% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.63% (0.058 0.06)58.36% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.02% (0.045000000000002 0.05)78.98% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Independiente del Valle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.7% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)37.29% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.92% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)74.08% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.35% (0.075999999999993 0.08)25.65% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.45% (0.105 0.1)60.55% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Independiente del Valle 27.19%
    River Plate 45.39%
    Draw 27.4%
Independiente del ValleDrawRiver Plate
1-0 @ 9.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 6.33% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 4.65% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.08% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.53% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.42%
Other @ 1.74%
Total : 27.19%
1-1 @ 12.83% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.57% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 27.4%
0-1 @ 13.01%
0-2 @ 8.85% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
1-2 @ 8.73% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 4.02% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.96% (0.015 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.95% (0.006 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.37% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 45.39%