Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 9, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Independiente
1 - 0
Universitario

Alcivar (82', 82')
Spinelli (69'), Spinelli (69'), Ibarra (90+2'), Ibarra (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Corzo (75'), Corzo (75'), Corzo (75')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Independiente del Valle and Universitario.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Independiente
Wednesday, April 2 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Universitario

Last Game: Universitario 0-1 River Plate
Thursday, April 3 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 47.28%. A win for Universitario had a probability of 26.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Universitario win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Independiente del Valle in this match.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Universitario
47.28% ( -0.03)	26.33% ( 0.01)	26.39% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 49.09% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.1% (

-0.02)

54.9% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.81% (

-0.02)

76.19% (

0.02)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.78% (

-0.02)

23.22% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.88% (

-0.03)

57.12% (

0.03)

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.93% (

0.01)

36.07% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.15% (

0.01)

72.85% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 47.27%

Universitario 26.39%

Draw 26.33%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Universitario
1-0 @ 12.22% 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.93% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0) Other @ 2.78% Total : 47.27%	1-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( -0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.33%	0-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.36% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.35% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.16% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.58% 0-3 @ 1.48% ( 0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 26.39%