Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 2, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Barcelona
1 - 0
Independiente

Carabali (5', 5')
Arroyo (31'), Arroyo (31'), Arreaga (61'), Arreaga (61'), Eugenio Gomez Cuero (86'), Eugenio Gomez Cuero (86'), Caicedo (90+5'), Caicedo (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Schunke (24'), Schunke (24'), Quinonez (85'), Quinonez (85')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle.

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona SC

Last Game: Corinthians 2-0 Barcelona
Thursday, March 13 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Independiente del Valle

Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-0 Independiente
Thursday, July 25 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona SC win with a probability of 38.1%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 34.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 0-1 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Barcelona SC in this match.

Result
Barcelona SC	Draw	Independiente del Valle
38.1% ( 0.03)	27.15% ( -0.02)	34.76% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 50.36% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.97% (

0.06)

55.03% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.71% (

0.05)

76.29% (

-0.05)

Barcelona SC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.98% (

0.05)

28.02% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.34% (

0.06)

63.66% (

-0.06)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.96% (

0.03)

30.04% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.83% (

0.03)

66.17% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Barcelona SC 38.09%

Independiente del Valle 34.76%

Draw 27.14%

Barcelona SC	Draw	Independiente del Valle
1-0 @ 10.7% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.81% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.89% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 38.09%	1-1 @ 12.87% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.92% Total : 27.14%	0-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.74% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.44% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.35% Total : 34.76%