Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg
Feb 20, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa
Barcelona SC (Ecuador)

El Nacional
0 - 1
Barcelona


Carabali (3'), Carabali (3'), Andres Cabezas Briones (62'), Andres Cabezas Briones (62'), Ignacio Flor Blanco (75'), Ignacio Flor Blanco (75')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Velez (78' og., 78' og.)
Arroyo (43'), Arroyo (43'), Pineida (90'), Pineida (90')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between El Nacional and Barcelona SC.

Form, Standings, Stats

El Nacional

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: El Nacional 2-1 Blooming (4-3 pen.)
Friday, February 14 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Barcelona SC

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Bragantino 3-2 Barcelona
Thursday, July 25 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona SC win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for El Nacional had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona SC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest El Nacional win was 1-0 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Barcelona SC in this match.

Result
El NacionalDrawBarcelona SC
31.22% (0.067 0.07)26.24% (0.00099999999999767 0)42.55% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)
Both teams to score 52.26% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.83% (0.013999999999996 0.01)52.17% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.12% (0.009999999999998 0.01)73.88% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)
El Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.05% (0.052999999999997 0.05)30.96% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.75% (0.064 0.06)67.26% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Barcelona SC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.7% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)24.31% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.32% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)58.69% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Score Analysis
    El Nacional 31.22%
    Barcelona SC 42.55%
    Draw 26.23%
El NacionalDrawBarcelona SC
1-0 @ 8.82% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
2-1 @ 7.32% (0.011 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.17% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.86% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.02% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.02% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3%
Total : 31.22%
1-1 @ 12.47%
0-0 @ 7.52% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 5.17% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 0.95% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.23%
0-1 @ 10.64% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.53% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.16% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.55% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.44%
1-4 @ 1.47% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.26% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 42.55%

rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!