Copa Libertadores | First Round | 2nd Leg
Feb 14, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa

El Nacional
2 - 1
Blooming

Martinez (67', 67'), Fabian Guisamano Camacho (75', 75')
Montano (34'), Montano (34'), Caicedo (45+2'), Caicedo (45+2'), David Olmedo Garrido (72'), David Olmedo Garrido (72'), Fabian Pazmino Daza (90+5'), Fabian Pazmino Daza (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Spenhay (19', 19')
Garzon (36'), Garzon (36'), Gomez (53'), Gomez (53'), Uraezana (55'), Uraezana (55'), Duran Zabala (62'), Duran Zabala (62')
El Nacional win 4-3 on penalties
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between El Nacional and Blooming.

Form, Standings, Stats

El Nacional

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Last Game: Blooming 3-2 El Nacional
Friday, February 7 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Blooming

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Last Game: Blooming 3-2 El Nacional
Friday, February 7 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Nacional win with a probability of 49.59%. A win for Blooming had a probability of 25.46% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a El Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Blooming win was 0-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Nacional would win this match.

Result
El NacionalDrawBlooming
49.59% (-0.297 -0.3)24.95% (0.051000000000002 0.05)25.46% (0.248 0.25)
Both teams to score 52.42% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.85% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)50.14% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.89% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)72.11% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
El Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.76% (-0.128 -0.13)20.24% (0.13 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.43% (-0.206 -0.21)52.57% (0.209 0.21)
Blooming Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.72% (0.20100000000001 0.2)34.28% (-0.2 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.02% (0.213 0.21)70.98% (-0.21299999999999 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    El Nacional 49.59%
    Blooming 25.46%
    Draw 24.95%
El NacionalDrawBlooming
1-0 @ 11.08% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.48% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.85% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)
3-1 @ 5.05% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.72% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.7% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.02% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.88% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 49.59%
1-1 @ 11.86% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.94% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-2 @ 5.07% (0.018 0.02)
3-3 @ 0.96% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.95%
0-1 @ 7.43% (0.044 0.04)
1-2 @ 6.35% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
0-2 @ 3.98% (0.046 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.27% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.81% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.42% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 25.46%

Head to Head
Feb 7, 2025 12.30am
First Round 1st Leg
Blooming
3-2
El Nacional
Garzon (16'), Villarroel (21'), Alaniz (37')
Acosta (13'), Enoumba (90+1')
Fabian Guisamano Camacho (28'), Alexander Ledesma Felix (87')
Bedoya (62'), Montano (81')