Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 9, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Monumental

Universitario
1 - 1
Independiente

Carabali (34', 34')
Costa (45+1'), Costa (45+1'), Concha (49'), Concha (49'), Carabali (71'), Carabali (71')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Spinelli (28', 28')
Mercado (43'), Mercado (43')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Universitario and Independiente del Valle.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universitario

Last Game: Barcelona 0-1 Universitario
Wednesday, April 23 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Independiente del Valle

Last Game: Independiente 2-2 River Plate
Thursday, April 24 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 53.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.

Result
Universitario	Draw	Independiente del Valle
53.03% ( -0.03)	24.78% ( -0)	22.2% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 49.41% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.64% (

0.06)

52.36% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.95% (

0.05)

74.05% (

-0.04)

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.29% (

0.01)

19.71% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.27% (

0.02)

51.73% (

-0.02)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.54% (

0.06)

38.46% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.79% (

0.06)

75.21% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Universitario 53.02%

Independiente del Valle 22.2%

Draw 24.77%

Universitario	Draw	Independiente del Valle
1-0 @ 12.31% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.2% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 53.02%	1-1 @ 11.76% 0-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.87% Total : 24.77%	0-1 @ 7.25% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.46% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 1.52% Total : 22.2%