Australian A-League | Gameweek 26

Apr 12, 2025 at 6am UK

Westpac Stadium

Wellington
2 - 3
Victory

Piper (10', 10'), Retre (75', 75')

FT(HT: 2-4)

Velupillay (4', 4'), Machach (45+1', 45+1'), Vergos (50', 50')
Jackson (57'), Jackson (57'), Hamill (78'), Hamill (78')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington
Sunday, April 6 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 5-3 Adelaide United
Saturday, March 29 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 57.27%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 21.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
21.06% ( 0.34)	21.67% ( 0.14)	57.27% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 57.83% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.58% (

-0.18)

40.42% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.2% (

-0.19)

62.8% (

0.19)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.18% (

0.22)

32.82% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.62% (

0.24)

69.38% (

-0.24)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.08% (

-0.2)

13.92% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.63% (

-0.41)

41.37% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 21.06%

Melbourne Victory 57.27%

Draw 21.66%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.37% Total : 21.06%	1-1 @ 10.03% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 21.66%	1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.01% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 6.5% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 3.62% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.21% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 2.88% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.26% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.26% Total : 57.27%