Australian A-League | Gameweek 21

Feb 28, 2025 at 6.30am UK

Westpac Stadium

Wellington
0 - 1
Melbourne City

Rufer (70')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tilio (51')
Trewin (76')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Auckland FC 6-1 Wellington
Saturday, February 22 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 2-2 Melbourne City
Saturday, February 22 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 50.75%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne City
25.68% ( -0.39)	23.58% ( -0.15)	50.75% ( 0.54)

Both teams to score 57.1% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.93% (

0.32)

44.07% (

-0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.55% (

0.31)

66.45% (

-0.31)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.15% (

-0.14)

30.85% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.87% (

-0.16)

67.13% (

0.16)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.57% (

0.33)

17.43% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.12% (

0.56)

47.88% (

-0.56)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 25.68%

Melbourne City 50.75%

Draw 23.57%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 6.32% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.91% Total : 25.68%	1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.57%	1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 5.62% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 4.78% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 2.45% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.82% Total : 50.75%