Australian A-League | Gameweek 19

Feb 14, 2025 at 8.35am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Victory
1 - 0
Wellington

Vergos (57')
Vergos (58'), Rawlins (65'), Langerak (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sheridan (75'), Sutton (89')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 3-0 Victory
Saturday, February 8 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 1-1 Brisbane Roar
Thursday, February 6 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.65%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 21.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
56.65% ( 0.72)	22% ( -0.06)	21.34% ( -0.66)

Both teams to score 57.08% (

-0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.39% (

-0.58)

41.6% (

0.58)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.99% (

-0.59)

64% (

0.59)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.48% (

0.04)

14.51% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.48% (

0.07)

42.52% (

-0.07)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.77% (

-0.94)

33.23% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.16% (

-1.05)

69.83% (

1.05)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 56.65%

Wellington Phoenix 21.34%

Draw 22%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 3% Total : 56.65%	1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.19% Total : 22%	1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 5.31% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.3% Total : 21.34%