Australian A-League | Gameweek 15

Jan 18, 2025 at 8.35am UK

Coopers Stadium

Adelaide United
3 - 2
Victory

Mauk (31'), Miranda (45+1' og.), Alagich (71')
Folami (48')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Teague (18'), Santos Rodrigus (66')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 1-2 Adelaide United
Saturday, January 11 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 3-4 Western Utd
Friday, January 10 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 35.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.48%) and 3-1 (5.19%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.

Result
Adelaide United	Draw	Melbourne Victory
42.42% ( -0.11)	22.15% ( 0.08)	35.44% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 68.38% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.22% (

-0.38)

31.78% (

0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.7% (

-0.45)

53.3% (

0.45)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.18% (

-0.19)

15.82% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55% (

-0.35)

45% (

0.36)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.23% (

-0.16)

18.77% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.83% (

-0.26)

50.17% (

0.27)

Score Analysis

Adelaide United 42.42%

Melbourne Victory 35.44%

Draw 22.15%

Adelaide United	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.1% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.88% Total : 42.42%	1-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.53% Total : 22.15%	1-2 @ 7.66% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.65% ( -0.02) 3-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.7% Total : 35.44%