Australian A-League | Gameweek 20

Feb 22, 2025 at 8.35am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Victory
2 - 2
Melbourne City

Machach (45+7' pen.), Santos Rodrigus (48')
Miranda (53')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Tilio (5', 5'), Trewin (70' pen.)
Trewin (44'), Trewin (44'), Atkinson (50'), Kuen (56')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 1-0 Wellington
Friday, February 14 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 1-0 Perth Glory
Saturday, February 15 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.69%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
42.44% ( 0.14)	23.13% ( 0.01)	34.43% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 64.25% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.96% (

-0.1)

37.04% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.77% (

-0.1)

59.23% (

0.11)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.05% (

0.02)

17.95% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.21% (

0.03)

48.79% (

-0.03)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.31% (

-0.12)

21.69% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.17% (

-0.19)

54.83% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 42.44%

Melbourne City 34.43%

Draw 23.13%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.84% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.65% 4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.87% Total : 42.44%	1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.13%	1-2 @ 7.81% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.98% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.58% Total : 34.43%