Australian A-League | Gameweek 24

Mar 29, 2025 at 8.35am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Victory
5 - 3
Adelaide United

Arzani (29', 29', 71' pen.), Velupillay (39', 39'), Vergos (88', 90')
Fornaroli (78'), Badolato (90+8')

FT(HT: 4-2)

Yull (12', 12'), Goodwin (47'), Clough (56' pen.)
Kikianis (50'), Clough (87')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Western Sydney 4-2 Victory
Saturday, March 15 at 8.30am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 4-5 Macarthur
Friday, March 14 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 54.5%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 24.68% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.77%) and 3-1 (6.63%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Adelaide United
54.5% ( 0.12)	20.82% ( -0.08)	24.68% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 65.96% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.05% (

0.34)

31.95% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.49% (

0.4)

53.51% (

-0.4)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.05% (

0.15)

11.95% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.66% (

0.31)

37.34% (

-0.31)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.91% (

0.16)

25.09% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.22% (

0.22)

59.78% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 54.5%

Adelaide United 24.68%

Draw 20.82%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Adelaide United
2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.79% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.52% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.78% Total : 54.5%	1-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.44% Total : 20.82%	1-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 24.68%