Australian A-League Gameweek 24
Victory
Mar 29, 2025 8.35am
5
3
HT : 4 2
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Adelaide United
  • Daniel Arzani 29' goal
  • Daniel Arzani 29' goal
  • Nishan Velupillay 39' goal
  • Nishan Velupillay 39' goal
  • Daniel Arzani 71' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 78' yellowcard
  • Nikolaos Vergos 88' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 90' goal
  • Alexander Badolato 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Jonny Yull 12'
  • goal Jonny Yull 12'
  • goal Archie Goodwin 47'
  • yellowcard Panagiotis Kikianis 50'
  • goal Zach Clough 56'
  • yellowcard Zach Clough 87'

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 15, 2025 8.30am
Western Sydney 4 - 2 Victory
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Nishan Velupillay

Adelaide United

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 14, 2025 8.35am
Adelaide United 4 - 5 Macarthur
Goals scored
55
Top scorer
Archie Goodwin

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 54.5%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 24.68% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.77%) and 3-1 (6.63%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result

Melbourne Victory 54.5% ▲ (+0.13)
Draw 20.82% ▼ (-0.08)
Adelaide United 24.68% ▼ (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

65.96% ▲ (+0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5 68.05% ▲ (+0.35)
Under 2.5 31.95% ▼ (-0.35)
Over 3.5 46.49% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 3.5 53.51% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 4.5 27.59% ▲ (+0.35)
Under 4.5 72.41% ▼ (-0.35)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5 88.05% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 0.5 11.95% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 1.5 62.66% ▲ (+0.32)
Under 1.5 37.34% ▼ (-0.32)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5 74.91% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 0.5 25.09% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 1.5 40.22% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 1.5 59.78% ▼ (-0.22)

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 54.5%
Draw 20.82%
Adelaide United 24.68%
Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 9.36% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 6.77% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 6.63% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 6.37% ▼ (-0.09)
3-0 @ 4.79% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 4.58% ▲ (+0.04)
4-1 @ 3.52% ▲ (+0.04)
4-0 @ 2.55% ▲ (+0.02)
4-2 @ 2.43% ▲ (+0.04)
5-1 @ 1.5% ▲ (+0.03)
4-3 @ 1.12% ▲ (+0.03)
5-0 @ 1.08% ▲ (+0.02)
5-2 @ 1.03% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 54.5%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.81% ▼ (-0.08)
2-2 @ 6.47% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 3% ▼ (-0.06)
3-3 @ 2.11% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 20.82%
Adelaide United
1-2 @ 6.09% ▼ (-0.03)
0-1 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.06)
2-3 @ 2.98% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 2.87% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 2.81% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.32% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.03% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 24.68%

Head to Head

Australian A-League Gameweek 15
Adelaide United
Jan 18, 2025 8.35am
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Coopers Stadium
Victory
  • Stefan Mauk 31' goal
  • Roderick Miranda 45'+1' goal
  • Ben Folami 48' yellowcard
  • Ethan Alagich 71' goal
  • goal Ryan Teague 18'
  • goal Clarismario Santos Rodrigus 66'
Australian A-League Gameweek 20
Adelaide United
Mar 9, 2024 9.15am
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Coopers Stadium
Victory
  • Nestory Irankunda 51' goal
  • Nick Ansell 55' yellowcard
  • goal Bruno Fornaroli 33'
  • goal Bruno Fornaroli 57'
  • yellowcard Roderick Miranda 87'
  • yellowcard Paul Izzo 90'+7'
Australian A-League Gameweek 10
Victory
Dec 30, 2023 8.45am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT AAMI Park
Adelaide United
  • Bruno Fornaroli 39' goal
  • Zinedine Machach 73' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 88' yellowcard
  • Bruno Fornaroli 90' goal
  • yellowcard A. Popovic 62'
  • yellowcard Alexandar Popovic 62'
  • yellowcard Javi Lopez 68'
  • yellowcard Isaias Sanchez 71'
Australian A-League Gameweek 3
Victory
Nov 4, 2023 8.45am
1
1
HT : 2 0
FT Marvel Stadium
Adelaide United
  • Bruno Fornaroli 28' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 28' goal
  • Roderick Miranda 58' yellowcard
  • Roderick Miranda 63' redcard
  • Rai Marchan 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Connor Chapman 90'+7' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Panashe Madanha 22'
  • yellowcard Panashe Madanha 22'
  • goal Hiroshi Ibusuki 59'
  • yellowcard Nestory Irankunda 79'
  • yellowcard Carl Veart 81'
  • redcard Nestory Irankunda 90'+6'
Australian A-League Gameweek 18
Victory
Feb 26, 2023 4.00am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT AAMI Park
Adelaide United
  • Bruno Fornaroli 81' goal
  • goal Nestory Irankunda 87'
Australian A-League Gameweek 12
Adelaide United
Jan 14, 2023 8.45am
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Coopers Stadium
Victory
  • Craig Goodwin 7' goal
  • goal Nicholas D'Agostino 49'

Form Data

Western Sydney 4 - 2 Victory
Victory 3 - 0 Central Coast
Brisbane Roar 1 - 1 Victory
Victory 2 - 2 Melbourne City
Victory 1 - 0 Wellington
Newcastle Jets 3 - 0 Victory
Adelaide United 4 - 5 Macarthur
Adelaide United 1 - 1 Brisbane Roar
Auckland FC 4 - 4 Adelaide United
Western Utd 3 - 0 Adelaide United
Adelaide United 1 - 2 Newcastle Jets
Adelaide United 1 - 0 Melbourne City