Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 58.13%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 22.01% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.04%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (5.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 58.13% ( | 19.86% ( | 22.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 66.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.63% ( | 30.37% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.36% ( | 51.63% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.52% ( | 10.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.89% ( | 34.11% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.78% ( | 26.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.68% ( | 61.32% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 3-1 @ 7.04% ( 2-0 @ 6.99% ( 1-0 @ 6.2% ( 3-0 @ 5.26% ( 3-2 @ 4.71% ( 4-1 @ 3.97% ( 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 4-2 @ 2.66% ( 5-1 @ 1.79% ( 5-0 @ 1.34% ( 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 4-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 3.47% Total : 58.13% | 1-1 @ 8.3% ( 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0-0 @ 2.75% ( 3-3 @ 2.1% ( Other @ 0.45% Total : 19.86% | 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0-1 @ 3.68% ( 2-3 @ 2.8% ( 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0-2 @ 2.46% ( 0-3 @ 1.1% ( 2-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 22.01% |