Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 62.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 17.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Melbourne City in this match.