Australian A-League | Gameweek 25

Apr 6, 2025 at 8am UK

McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Jets
1 - 2
Wellington

Oluwayemi (65' og.)
Mizunuma (83')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Barbarouses (34'), Nagasawa (41')
Rufer (54'), Payne (90+6')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle Jets

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 3-3 Newcastle Jets
Friday, March 28 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 2-2 Western Sydney
Saturday, March 29 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 49.9%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.03%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Newcastle Jets	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
49.9% ( 0.76)	22.21% ( -0.06)	27.89% ( -0.7)

Both teams to score 64.02% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.17% (

-0.2)

35.83% (

0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.09% (

-0.22)

57.91% (

0.22)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.3% (

0.18)

14.71% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.1% (

0.35)

42.9% (

-0.35)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.06% (

-0.56)

24.94% (

0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.43% (

-0.78)

59.57% (

0.78)

Score Analysis

Newcastle Jets 49.9%

Wellington Phoenix 27.89%

Draw 22.21%

Newcastle Jets	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.4% Total : 49.9%	1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.67% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.21%	1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 5.09% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.54% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.56% Total : 27.89%