Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.16%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.69%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 50.16% ( | 21.93% ( | 27.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 65.08% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.55% ( | 34.45% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.63% ( | 56.37% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.87% ( | 14.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.23% ( | 41.77% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.78% ( | 24.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.44% ( | 58.56% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 1-0 @ 6.69% ( 2-0 @ 6.55% ( 3-1 @ 6.06% ( 3-2 @ 4.3% 3-0 @ 4.27% ( 4-1 @ 2.97% ( 4-2 @ 2.1% ( 4-0 @ 2.09% ( 5-1 @ 1.16% ( 4-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 3.67% Total : 50.16% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0-0 @ 3.42% ( 3-3 @ 2.03% ( Other @ 0.4% Total : 21.93% | 1-2 @ 6.73% ( 0-1 @ 4.85% ( 0-2 @ 3.44% ( 1-3 @ 3.18% ( 2-3 @ 3.11% ( 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 1-4 @ 1.13% ( 2-4 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.73% Total : 27.91% |