Primeira Liga | Gameweek 23

Feb 21, 2025 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Braga

Braga
1 - 0
Nacional

Gorby (37')
Racic (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Dias (70'), Abidi (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Braga and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Braga

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-0 Braga
Sunday, February 16 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Nacional 2-2 Estoril
Saturday, February 15 at 5pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 77.78%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 7.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.61%) and 1-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (2.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Braga	Draw	Nacional
77.78% ( 0.05)	14.24% ( -0.02)	7.98% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 47.47% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.53% (

-0)

35.47% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.49% (

-0)

57.51% (

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.61% (

0.01)

7.39% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.35% (

0.03)

26.64% (

-0.03)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.26% (

-0.07)

48.74% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.23% (

-0.05)

83.77% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Braga 77.78%

Nacional 7.98%

Draw 14.24%

Braga	Draw	Nacional
2-0 @ 12.22% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 10.61% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.63% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.97% 5-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.59% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.79% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.56% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.12% ( 0) 5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.94% Total : 77.78%	1-1 @ 6.74% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.6% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.74% Total : 14.24%	0-1 @ 2.59% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 7.98%