Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22

Feb 15, 2025 at 5pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
2 - 2
Estoril

Dudu (45+4' pen.), Penha (52')
Paulinho (25'), Aguiar Tomich (81'), Garcia (83')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Lacximicant (4'), Bacher (90+3')
Bacher (39'), Holsgrove (45+2'), Zanocelo (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Farense 0-2 Nacional
Sunday, February 9 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Last Game: Estoril 2-1 Boavista
Sunday, February 9 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Estoril Praia
35.45% ( -0.56)	25.19% ( 0.07)	39.36% ( 0.49)

Both teams to score 56.95% (

-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.36% (

-0.36)

46.64% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.09% (

-0.34)

68.91% (

0.34)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.41% (

-0.49)

25.58% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.54% (

-0.67)

60.46% (

0.67)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.53% (

0.09)

23.47% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.52% (

0.13)

57.48% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Nacional 35.45%

Estoril Praia 39.36%

Draw 25.18%

Nacional	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.57% Total : 35.45%	1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.18%	0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 8.6% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 4.16% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 2.08% Total : 39.36%