Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 53.73%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 21.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.56%) and 1-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.