Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 51.16%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Braga.