Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 19, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio Jose Gomes

Estrela Amadora
0 - 1
Braga

Bucca (84'), Varela (87'), Manu (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

El Ouazzani (90+3')
Martinez (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Estrela Amadora and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-4 Estoril
Sunday, January 5 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Braga

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Braga 2-1 Lusitano Evora
Wednesday, January 15 at 8.15pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 51.16%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Braga.

Result
Estrela Amadora	Draw	Braga
24.62% ( 0.17)	24.22% ( 0.02)	51.16% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 53.9% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.21% (

0.04)

47.78% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.03% (

0.04)

69.97% (

-0.04)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.29% (

0.17)

33.71% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.63% (

0.18)

70.37% (

-0.18)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.32% (

-0.06)

18.68% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.98% (

-0.1)

50.02% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Estrela Amadora 24.62%

Braga 51.16%

Draw 24.21%

Estrela Amadora	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.29% Total : 24.62%	1-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.21%	0-1 @ 10.56% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.64% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.86% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.39% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.08% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.23% Other @ 3.25% Total : 51.16%