Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21

Feb 8, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
3 - 2
Moreirense

Pavlidis (7' pen., 15'), Otamendi (42')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Martins (19'), Rodrigues (85')
Marcelo (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Moreirense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-3 Benfica
Sunday, February 2 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Moreirense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Moreirense 1-2 Braga
Monday, February 3 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 78.49%. A draw had a probability of 13.9% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 7.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.73%) and 1-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.56%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (2.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Moreirense
78.49% ( -0.68)	13.86% ( 0.3)	7.66% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 47.38% (

0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.25% (

0.07)

34.75% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.29% (

0.08)

56.71% (

-0.08)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.92% (

-0.12)

7.09% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.16% (

-0.32)

25.85% (

0.33)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.99% (

1.04)

49.01% (

-1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.04% (

0.73)

83.97% (

-0.73)

Score Analysis

Benfica 78.48%

Moreirense 7.66%

Draw 13.86%

Benfica	Draw	Moreirense
2-0 @ 12.16% ( -0.21) 3-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.25) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 5.07% 5-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.05) 6-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.11% Total : 78.48%	1-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.73% Total : 13.86%	0-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.84% Total : 7.66%