Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20

Feb 2, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Jose Gomes

Estrela Amadora
2 - 3
Benfica

Drame (10'), Martins Travassos (34')
Pinho (16'), Goncalo Pinto Martins (21'), Bucca (76'), Martins Travassos (79')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Otamendi (6'), Pavlidis (28', 49')
Silva (37'), Aursnes (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Estrela Amadora and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 0-0 Estrela Amadora
Saturday, January 25 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Juventus 0-2 Benfica
Wednesday, January 29 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.69%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 11.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.07%) and 0-3 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Estrela Amadora	Draw	Benfica
11.02% ( 0.02)	18.29% ( -0.07)	70.69% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 45.45% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.14% (

0.39)

44.86% (

-0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.78% (

0.37)

67.22% (

-0.38)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.31% (

0.29)

48.68% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.27% (

0.21)

83.73% (

-0.22)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.57% (

0.12)

11.43% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.77% (

0.27)

36.22% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

Estrela Amadora 11.02%

Benfica 70.68%

Draw 18.29%

Estrela Amadora	Draw	Benfica
1-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.44% Other @ 2.44% Total : 11.02%	1-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.65% Total : 18.29%	0-2 @ 13.08% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 9.46% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.42% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 6.81% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.69% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.04) 0-5 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.6% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.4% Total : 70.68%