Major League Soccer

May 25, 2025 at 8pm UK

Yankee Stadium

NY City
3 - 1
Chicago Fire

Bakrar (58'), Wolf (70'), Martinez (89' pen.)
Haak (14'), Moralez (28'), Gray (45+3'), Martins (56')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Zinckernagel (19')
Dean (45+1'), Tah D'Avilla (60')
Gutierrez (31'), Tah D'Avilla (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and Chicago Fire, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: NY City 2-0 NY Red Bulls
Saturday, May 17 at 9.30pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Chicago Fire

All competitions

Last Game: Charlotte FC 1-4 Chicago Fire
Sunday, May 18 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.75%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.27%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	Chicago Fire
51.75% ( -0.74)	21.99% ( 0.11)	26.25% ( 0.63)

Both teams to score 63.3% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.86% (

0.06)

36.14% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.75% (

0.07)

58.25% (

-0.08)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.79% (

-0.22)

14.2% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.07% (

-0.42)

41.93% (

0.41)

Chicago Fire Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.78% (

0.48)

26.22% (

-0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.68% (

0.64)

61.32% (

-0.65)

Score Analysis

New York City FC 51.76%

Chicago Fire 26.25%

Draw 21.99%

New York City FC	Draw	Chicago Fire
2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.01% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.25% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.52% Total : 51.76%	1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.99%	1-2 @ 6.51% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.26% Total : 26.25%