UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 25, 2023 at 7pm UK

Ta'Qali National Stadium

Hamrun Spartans
2 - 1
Dinamo Tbilisi

(Hamrun Spartans win 3-1 on aggregate)

Mbong (81', 90+8')
Freitas da Silva (39'), Eder (59'), Prsa (74'), Jonny (90+2'), Mbong (90+9')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Marusic (59')
Tabidze (13'), Kharaishvili (63'), Loria (67'), Oulad Omar (70'), Margvelashvili (79')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Europa Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Hamrun Spartans and Dinamo Tbilisi.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamrun Spartans

Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 2-1 Hamrun Spartans
Tuesday, July 18 at 6pm in Champions League

Dinamo Tbilisi

Last Game: Dinamo Tbilisi 1-2 Astana
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamrun Spartans win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hamrun Spartans win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamrun Spartans would win this match.

Result
Hamrun Spartans	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
42.6% ( -0.02)	26.03% ( 0)	31.36% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 52.97% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.72% (

-0.03)

51.27% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.89% (

-0.02)

73.1% (

0.02)

Hamrun Spartans Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.11% (

-0.02)

23.88% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.92% (

-0.03)

58.08% (

0.02)

Dinamo Tbilisi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.6% (

-0.01)

30.4% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.4% (

-0.01)

66.6% (

Score Analysis

Hamrun Spartans 42.6%

Dinamo Tbilisi 31.36%

Draw 26.03%

Hamrun Spartans	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
1-0 @ 10.39% 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 42.6%	1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.03%	0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.37% 0-2 @ 5.15% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.93% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) Other @ 3.14% Total : 31.36%