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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 25, 2023 at 7pm UK
Ta'Qali National Stadium
Dinamo Tbilisi

Hamrun Spartans
2 - 1
Dinamo Tbilisi

Mbong (81', 90+8')
Freitas da Silva (39'), Eder (59'), Prsa (74'), Jonny (90+2'), Mbong (90+9')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Marusic (59')
Tabidze (13'), Kharaishvili (63'), Loria (67'), Oulad Omar (70'), Margvelashvili (79')
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Hamrun Spartans and Dinamo Tbilisi.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamrun Spartans

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Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 2-1 Hamrun Spartans
Tuesday, July 18 at 6pm in Champions League
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Dinamo Tbilisi

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Last Game: Dinamo Tbilisi 1-2 Astana
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamrun Spartans win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hamrun Spartans win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamrun Spartans would win this match.

Result
Hamrun SpartansDrawDinamo Tbilisi
42.6% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)26.03% (0.004999999999999 0)31.36% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 52.97% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.72% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)51.27% (0.022000000000006 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.89% (-0.023 -0.02)73.1% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Hamrun Spartans Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.11% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)23.88% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.92% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)58.08% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
Dinamo Tbilisi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.6% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)30.4% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.4% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)66.6% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Score Analysis
    Hamrun Spartans 42.6%
    Dinamo Tbilisi 31.36%
    Draw 26.03%
Hamrun SpartansDrawDinamo Tbilisi
1-0 @ 10.39%
2-1 @ 8.86% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
2-0 @ 7.44% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 4.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 3.55% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 1.52% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.27% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 42.6%
1-1 @ 12.38% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.28% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 8.65% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.37%
0-2 @ 5.15% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.93% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 2.1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.04% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 31.36%

How you voted: Hamrun Spartans vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Hamrun Spartans
50.0%
Draw
11.1%
Dinamo Tbilisi
38.9%
18