Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Tbilisi win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Astana had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Tbilisi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Astana win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.