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Champions League

Astana
Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 12, 2023 at 3pm UK
Astana Arena
Dinamo Tbilisi

Astana
1 - 1
Dinamo Tbilisi

Aymbetov (11')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sigua (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Astana

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Last Game: Astana 0-1 Rakow
Thursday, July 28 at 4pm in Europa Conference League
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Dinamo Tbilisi

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Last Game: Paide 1-2 Dinamo Tbilisi (6-5 pen.)
Thursday, July 14 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Astana win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Astana win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
AstanaDrawDinamo Tbilisi
42.76% (0.269 0.27)25.22% (-0.073 -0.07)32.02% (-0.19900000000001 -0.2)
Both teams to score 55.91% (0.167 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.41% (0.251 0.25)47.59% (-0.255 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.2% (0.231 0.23)69.79% (-0.235 -0.23)
Astana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.79% (0.235 0.23)22.21% (-0.239 -0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.37% (0.35299999999999 0.35)55.63% (-0.358 -0.36)
Dinamo Tbilisi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.87% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)28.13% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.19% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)63.81% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Score Analysis
    Astana 42.76%
    Dinamo Tbilisi 32.02%
    Draw 25.22%
AstanaDrawDinamo Tbilisi
1-0 @ 9.4% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.032 0.03)
2-0 @ 7.07% (0.026 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.5% (0.048 0.05)
3-0 @ 3.55% (0.038 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.85% (0.03 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.69% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.33% (0.023 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 42.76%
1-1 @ 11.92% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 6.25% (-0.067 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.69% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.22%
0-1 @ 7.92% (-0.084999999999999 -0.08)
1-2 @ 7.56% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.03% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.2% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.41% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.12% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.01% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 32.02%

How you voted: Astana vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Astana
88.9%
Draw
11.1%
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.0%
36