League Two

League Two | Gameweek 38

Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
5 - 3
Morecambe

Wildig (12', 54'), Lewis (18'), Charsley (78'), Palmer-Houlden (90+7')
Wildig (33'), Evans (40'), Jameson (67')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Edwards (31', 74'), Stokes (70')
Tutonda (23')

Coverage of the League Two clash between Newport County and Morecambe.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions

Last Game: Stockport 1-0 Newport
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Morecambe

All competitions

Last Game: Morecambe 1-3 Wrexham
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.72%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Morecambe
43.72% ( -0.32)	24.38% ( 0.03)	31.89% ( 0.29)

Both teams to score 58.74% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.13% (

-0.04)

43.87% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.74% (

-0.04)

66.25% (

0.04)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.79% (

-0.16)

20.2% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.48% (

-0.26)

52.51% (

0.25)

Morecambe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.61% (

0.16)

26.39% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.46% (

0.21)

61.54% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Newport County 43.72%

Morecambe 31.89%

Draw 24.37%

Newport County	Draw	Morecambe
2-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.64% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.91% Total : 43.72%	1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.37%	1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.22% Total : 31.89%