Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 38.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.1%) and 3-1 (4.79%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.