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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 37.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.32%) and 0-2 (5.26%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.24% ( 0.59) | 23.13% ( -0.16) | 39.63% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 64.8% ( 0.69) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.45% ( 0.87) | 36.55% ( -0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.3% ( 0.95) | 58.7% ( -0.95) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.95% ( 0.67) | 20.05% ( -0.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.72% ( 1.07) | 52.28% ( -1.07) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.05% ( 0.18) | 18.95% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.53% ( 0.3) | 50.47% ( -0.3) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 4.91% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.16% Total : 37.24% | 1-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.24) 0-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 4.68% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.52% Total : 39.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
> League Two Full Table |